Is it too late to buy Charter Hall Group shares?

Shares in property funds and investment manager Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) have had a stellar run, jumping 37% in the last year. Should investors jump on board?

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC) have defied the doubters this year, with rises in interest rates not materialising and industrial, commercial, and retail demand remaining solid.

None more so than Charter Hall. It grew its profits after tax by 19.7% to $257 million in 2017, and its operating earnings by 18% to 35.9c. At the end of first quarter of 2017/18,  funds under management stood at $20.4 billion. That's up almost $3 billion in the last 15 months.

In deciding whether I think Charter Hall is a buy, sell or hold, I've taken no particular macro view. I only make the general comment that property has always had a tendency to "climb a wall of worry." Rather I look at Charter Hall's performance metrics and valuation fundamentals.

Charter Hall's net asset value is $3.60. It's share price is $6.20. That's a massive 72% premium to NAV. It's worth noting that peers such as GPT Group (ASX: GPT) and Cromwell Group (ASX: CMW) trade on only 7% and 16% premiums respectively.

You are paying a hefty price for quality in buying Charter Hall, unless you take the view that the others are absurdly cheap. I don't.

The other major factor to consider is dividends. Growth in Charter Hall's dividend last year was 11.5%, to an unfranked 30c. That's no mean feat but still much lower than earnings growth of 18%. Last year's payout ratio was 85%, although this is at the bottom end of the company's future payout guidance of 85-95%. The upshot is that at 620c, Charter Hall shares yield a modest 4.8%. Compare that with Cromwell Group, for example, which yields 8.3%.

Foolish takeaway

With analysts forecasting a moderation in earnings growth in 2018, I just can't see Charter Hall's lofty valuation allowing for further share price appreciation, and quite possibly the reverse. I would avoid, and, if I were a holder, I would be inclined to take profits.

Motley Fool contributor James Middleweek has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Technology Shares

Joining the revolution: How I'd invest in ASX AI shares right now

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could usher in a new industrial revolution. Here’s how you can invest in it.

Read more »

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »