The Motley Fool is all about holding shares for the long term, it got me thinking this morning about what type of company could actually be owned for 50 years. If you look at the last 50 years of human history, some previously high-tech, life-changing inventions simply don't exist anymore- and nor do the companies that make them.
Kodak is gone, as are cathode ray tubes. Disk drives are on the way out, as are DVD and blu-ray players. Mail will be a thing of the past. Advances in technology over the past decade could certainly make coal or oil obsolete, just like the landline telephone.
Here are 3 businesses I think could still be around in 2070:
CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)
Unless medical immortality is on the cards by 2070, there will still be a need for CSL's blood and autoimmune products. For sure, some diseases may be cured, but if you look backwards over the past 50 years there are plenty that haven't been – like malaria. As one of the world leaders in its industry and with high levels of spending on research & development, CSL could be in a good position to reinvent and sustain itself over the next 50 years.
Sydney Airport Holdings Ltd (ASX: SYD)
I debated whether air traffic could become obsolete (hovercars, anyone?). If it does, International travellers will still require a staging point for customs checks and so on, and Sydney Airport occupies a massive site right in the heart of Sydney. It welcomed 38 million passengers and 408,000 tonnes of air freight in 2014, and it would be difficult and expensive to shift those customers elsewhere. With a monopoly on air transport into Sydney, I wouldn't bet against the airport.
Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC)
Maybe we'll all be immortal by the time 2070 rolls around. More than likely, there will still be a need for specialist medical care and facilities. If anything, I expect the government to increasingly shift the burden of healthcare to the private sector. Combine this with an ageing and presently unhealthy population, and I don't think it's time to tear down the hospitals just yet. As one of the largest private hospital operators in Australia, Ramsay is in a good long-term position.
The interesting thing is that when you start thinking 50 years in the future, the price you pay becomes almost irrelevant – it's far more important to select a business with a good competitive position and resistance to obsolescence. In that sense, I think using the 'will this still be here in 2070?' filter could be a useful tool, especially for younger investors.
