Can the Ardent Leisure Group share price bounce back from its 29% decline?

The Ardent Leisure Group (ASX:AAD) share price has fallen heavily this year. Are there more declines to come or can its shares bounce back?

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Unfortunately for its shareholders, year-to-date the Ardent Leisure Group (ASX: AAD) share price has fallen by approximately 29%.

The reason for the decline was a disastrous half-year result which saw the company post a $49 million loss, compared to a $22 million profit in the prior corresponding period.

The tragic incident at Dreamworld last year was, of course, to blame for the poor performance.

Not only did falling visitor numbers at its theme parks have a major impact on its result, but a $90 million write-down off the value of Dreamworld also played a role.

Can Ardent Leisure bounce back?

As bleak as it does look for shareholders, there is a glimmer of hope that a turnaround is not far off now.

Last week the company reported unaudited Theme Parks revenues of $4.4 million, down 35% on the prior corresponding period.

This may still be a significant drop, but it is a big improvement on the December and January's numbers. During these two months the company saw revenue in the segment fall 63% and 50.4% respectively, compared to prior corresponding periods.

I've been impressed with this improvement and believe that theme park visitor numbers and revenues will continue to improve as the year goes on. Especially with Australia's tourism boom in full swing.

As I wrote recently, inbound tourism rose 8.5% year-on-year in January. I think companies like Ardent Leisure, Village Roadshow Ltd (ASX: VRL), and Event Hospitality and Entertainment Ltd (ASX: EVT) are all in a strong position to profit from this trend.

Ardent Leisure's U.S. operations.

There certainly is more to Ardent Leisure than its Dreamworld business. One key reason I think it is a great long-term buy and hold investment is its Main Event brand in the United States.

Management believes the highly profitable brand has the potential for upwards of 200 centres throughout the United States. Considering there are 31 centres operating today, if things go to plan this could be a significant driver of growth for at least the next decade.

With this in mind, I think Ardent Leisure can not only bounce back, but could provide strong returns for shareholders over the long-term. For this reason I would class it as a buy.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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