According to reports in the Asia Times if Donald Trump gets tough on China and starts a trade war, tourism into the United States from China could see a sharp drop.
The US government has forecast for Chinese inbound tourism to grow by over 14% per year through to 2021, eventually reaching 5.8 million visitors per year. If Trump scares off these tourists then I believe America's loss could be Australia's gain.
Three shares which could be big winners from this are as follows:
Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN)
Thanks to its alliance with China Eastern, Qantas will begin flying between Sydney and Beijing for the first time in around seven years. I believe this could be the first of many routes that the airline will establish over the next few years should Chinese tourism into Australia continue its solid growth. The company's profitability does depend on oil prices though. If prices stay low I expect it to be a great investment, but should prices rocket higher investors may want to avoid its shares.
Star Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: SGR)
I believe Star Entertainment's hotels and casinos are poised for strong growth as a result of the tourism boom. Chinese tourists are notorious for their love of gambling and Star Entertainment is a firm favourite here. Following a sell off in October I believe its shares are great value right now for buy and hold investors.
Sealink Travel Group Ltd (ASX: SLK)
Thanks to its ferry services in key tourist hotspots such as Sydney Harbour and Kangaroo Island, I expect an increase in tourism will result in the strong demand for SeaLink's services being sustained for some time to come. In FY 2016 the company reported a 58.8% increase in full year revenue to $176.7 million. I expect more of the same next year, especially with the recent acquisition of Captain Cook Cruises Western Australia.
