Crash: Why Programmed Maintenance Services Limited shares tumbled 19% today

Programmed Maintenance Services Limited (ASX:PRG) shares have plunged 19% in morning trade following an earnings guidance revision. Should you buy the dip or avoid it at all costs?

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It would appear as though a lot can change in a couple of months over at staffing, maintenance, and facility management services provider Programmed Maintenance Services Limited (ASX: PRG).

At the end of July its shares went on a tear after management provided a positive outlook for FY 2017.

But unfortunately just two months down the line Programmed has released an update to the market which reveals that it has downgraded its FY 2017 EBITDA forecast from $120 million to $100 million, excluding one-off Skilled Group integration and restructuring costs.

Management has advised that the short term revenue growth of its staffing business will not offset the steep decline in the marine business as it previously expected.

Its Programmed Skilled Workforce segment's on-hire headcount in July and August fell 6.7% compared to June, with a reduction in demand being seen across all major states. Management believes its customers have started the new financial year by lowering costs and reducing capital expenditures.

Positively though the segment does have more than $300 million per annum of new and near-term revenue opportunities in its development pipeline. If it can win this work then it certainly would go some way to supporting growth, but at this point in time I have little confidence in the company doing so.

Much like BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), Programmed may see a benefit from a rise in oil prices if OPEC does cut its production. For example revenue in its offshore marine business has dropped 80% in the last two years, partly as a result of the drop in oil prices, but this could change if oil prices surge higher.

But whether or not a cut in oil production by OPEC will have a lasting effect on prices is of course a matter of fierce debate.

Personally, at this point in time I believe Programmed shares are best avoided. The revision of its earnings guidance just two months after its annual general meeting does not fill me with any confidence.

Clearly I'm not alone in this view. Investors have been heading for the exits en masse this morning, dragging its shares lower by a whopping 19% in morning trade.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Technology Shares

Joining the revolution: How I'd invest in ASX AI shares right now

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could usher in a new industrial revolution. Here’s how you can invest in it.

Read more »

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »