Even though there remains a good chance the RBA could leave rates on hold for another month at least, it seems there is a growing expectation that the RBA will cut official interest rates to 1.5% when it meets today.
This potential rate cut has arguably already been priced in by the market considering the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) has climbed more than 6% over the past month.
This means some shares might be susceptible to big moves depending on how the RBA moves today.
Five shares that I will watch closely today include:
Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS)
With the huge teclo struggling to generate underlying earnings growth, the direction of interest rates now appears to have the biggest impact on the direction of Telstra's share price. Investors are attracted to the reliable dividend income the company provides and the low interest environment has seen the share price bid up by investors looking for an attractive yield. The shares could come under pressure today if the RBA decides to keep rates on hold, although the long term outlook for rates is supportive of the share price in the medium term.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
The relatively high dividend yields of all four big banks means they will also be watched closely today. Another rate cut could also give the property market another leg up and this could help to boost lending among the major banks.
JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH)
Lower interest rates are designed to stimulate consumer spending which will clearly benefit companies operating in the discretionary retail sector like JB Hi-Fi. The shares have already climbed by around 10% over the past two weeks partly on the expectation of another rate cut. This means the shares could come under pressure today if the RBA keeps rates on hold.
Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)
The travel agent has blamed weak consumer confidence from domestic travellers as the cause for its recent decline in earnings growth. The company will hope for another rate cut today to give consumer and business sentiment a boost which should help to stimulate demand from travellers. A rate cut today could also give the shares a boost from income-hungry investors, considering Flight Centre offers a relatively attractive dividend yield of 4.7%.
Mcgrath Ltd (ASX: MEA)
McGrath shares have had a rough time since listing late last year but another rate cut could certainly help to turn the company's fortunes around. Although the RBA may wish to avoid stimulating an already buoyant residential property market with another rate cut, there is little doubt that property buyers and sellers will feel more confident in a market with even lower interest rates. Interestingly, McGrath shares have bounced more than 20% over the past month.
