Right now opinions on the direction of the gold price and therefore the prospects of Australian gold miners such as EVOLUTION FPO (ASX: EVN) are quite divisive.
Following solid economic data out of the United States, international markets have moved on from the initial shock of the Brexit and appear to have an appetite for risk once again. This has sent safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen lower.
But the prospect of the European Central Bank providing additional stimulus when it meets next month has the potential to cause gold prices to rise again according to reports in the Wall Street Journal. This is because monetary easing will often cause gold demand to increase as investors hedge against weakening currencies.
Whilst the door is definitely open for additional stimulus next month, it is far from a foregone conclusion. But judging from the market's reaction today investors appear bullish. Gold miners such as Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG), St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM), Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM), and Evolution Mining are all putting on strong gains for their respective shareholders.
Evolution Mining is up over 5% today as a result of this renewed optimism, but also possibly after being named in a research note released by Morgan Stanley today as its pick of the Australian gold miners. It placed a $3.30 price target on its shares, which implies significant upside in the region of 25% based on yesterday's close price.
But is it a good investment today? That depends entirely on where you believe the gold price is heading. Personally, I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold and feel it will hold steady in its current range of US$1,300 to US$1,350 for some time to come.
This does bode well for Evolution Mining. In its last quarter it revealed that its group All-In Sustaining Cost was $1,117 per ounce (US$833 per ounce). With the gold price being north of US$1,300, the miner is in a fantastic position to profit at present.
Rather pleasingly it has been tackling its debt as well. Since the beginning of September 2015 total debt outstanding has been reduced by $322 million to $285 million. This paints a picture of a healthy business in my opinion, and one which I have no doubt would make for a good investment if the gold price goes higher.
But for now, I feel this is priced in and therefore wouldn't expect to see its share price go higher unless the price of gold also climbs higher. So for this reason I would personally sit this one out.
