Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU) is a vertically integrated provider of share registry administration services, boasting a coveted list of Australian clients including the likes of BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Woolworths Limited (ASX: WOW) (to name a few).
The group provides a global footprint of share administration solutions for listed companies, directly competing against Link Administration Holdings Limited (ASX: LNK) – owner of Link Market Services.
On Monday, Computershare's share price hit a new 52-week low, posing the question of whether it's time to buy shares in Australia's largest share registry provider.
New lows
Computershare's share price has trended lower following the historic UK referendum decision to leave the EU on June 24.
In my opinion, the market appears to be pricing in earnings attrition in Computershare's ongoing business, arguably in light of its recent acquisition of UK Asset Resolution's (UKAR) mortgage servicing business.
UKAR Acquisition
As announced on 4 May 2016, Computershare was officially appointed manager of UKAR's mortgage servicing activities for a period of seven years.
Under the terms of the long-term contract, Computershare will assist the UK Government exclusively to manage a portfolio of mortgages, receiving guaranteed fixed fees in the first four years in addition to a performance based fee structure.
Overall, the acquisition is expected to be modestly accretive to earnings per share (EPS) and result in total projected revenues of circa GBP600 million over the contract terms.
Brexit uncertainty
Despite the forecast boost to earnings, the slump in the Pound (versus the Australian dollar) post-Brexit means translated earnings are likely to be lower when the company reports results, offsetting most of the EPS accretion coming from the acquisition (on a translated basis).
Additionally, any Brexit-induced hit to consumer and business confidence could lead to higher mortgage defaults (if UK unemployment rises), meaning earnings could struggle following the fixed fee portion of the contract. This is especially concerning given the final three years' fees are contingent on outstanding portfolio balances (and management performance).
Accordingly, uncertainty surrounding Brexit appears to be driving Computershare's share price lower.
Foolish takeaway
Given the Brexit hangover risks associated with its new UK venture, I believe it's still too early to understand the full impacts Brexit will have on Computershare's earnings. Therefore, you shouldn't buy its shares just because they trade at 52-week lows today, in my opinion.
Instead, investors should wait before purchasing to evaluate earnings growth in its current business (including the UKAR acquisition) to see if Computershare's strategy can withstand the test of time.
