Shares in vitamins, nutritional foods and baby formula business Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL) are up around 4 per cent to $187 this morning after the AFR reported that broker JP Morgan tipped the shares to reach $215 in 2016.
Blackmores recently reported a net profit of $145 million for the nine months ending March 31 2016, which was up 145% over the prior corresponding period and reflects 10 consecutive quarters of sales growth.
Chinese demand is what has been driving the growth with Asia in-market sales of $98 million, up 64% on the prior corresponding period. Asian shoppers are now thought to account for 50% of all revenue, with sales growing strongly in all 15 countries that the business operates in.
Arguably, Chinese demand is only just starting to crank up as its giant population begins to demand the trappings of a middle-class lifestyle. This as the country transitions away from currency devaluation and infrastructure growth to a consumer-led economy able to afford the products of businesses like Blackmores.
In fact this could be just the beginning of a 5-10-year boom for Blackmores' vitamins and baby foods sales, just as commodity and iron ore sales boomed over the period 2003-2013 thanks to a commodity super-cycle led by Chinese demand.
Blackmores has now developed substantial know-how on doing business in China and continues to invest heavily in advertising in the country. It is also partnering with Chinese superstars like Fan Bing Bing and Li Na to promote sales of its products.
Given the strong demand growth the biggest threat to Blackmores' sales growth is competition, with US vitamins businesses and others like Suisse also fighting for market share via competitive pricing and heavy advertising.
Blackmores also has some regulatory risk as the Chinese government looks to raise its share of tax revenues on this booming industry, but over the long term any regulatory changes may prove a small speed bump on the company's growth trajectory.
Blackmores is also now moving into the baby formula space where ASX-listed rivals like Bellamy's Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) and a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M) have enjoyed even stronger sales growth.
Competition remains an issue in the baby formula space however, as powerful multi-nationals like Danone, Nestle SA and Mead Johnson already have substantial baby formula businesses in China.
Over the long-term I expect Bellamy's and a2 Milk will deliver decent returns to investors, although in my opinion Blackmores' deeper footprint in Chinese markets gives it the most market-thumping potential.
Surprisingly, I was able to buy shares for around $150 at the end of April, when they sold on just 27x annualised earnings per share despite the blistering growth outlook.
I expect the shares will go on to demolish JP Morgan's $215 price target over the next 12-24 months and believe it could be one of the ASX's best-performing large caps over the next three to five years.
