Why the Woolworths Limited share price could keep falling

Woolworths Limited (ASX:WOW) shares are on the nose with investors after a downgrade to earnings guidance.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

What: The share price of Australia's largest retailer Woolworths Limited (ASX: WOW) has been crushed today with the stock sinking around 8% in morning trade.

So What: The catalyst for the sell-off was the release of the group's Q1 sales results which also included revised first half guidance.

Given the sharp sell-down in Woolworths' shares this morning, this release has obviously been viewed as disastrous by the market. Amongst the low-lights from the release were a 0.8% increase in total sales (excluding petrol) to $14.4 billion, a decrease in same store sales within the Australian Food and Liquor division of 1% and an 8.1% decrease in comparable sales for the General Merchandise sales (which captures the Big W business).

The most disappointing news however was updated first half earnings which saw the group downgrade guidance to a net profit after tax of between $900 million and $1 billion. This represents a massive decline of between 28% and 35% on the prior corresponding period.

Now What: While the CEO Mr Grant O'Brien stated that he was pleased with the positive steps being taken to transform the business, there is no doubt that investors will be alarmed that a supposedly stable, blue-chip company can experience such a massive swing in profitability.

The share price performance for what is generally viewed as a defensive investment will also trouble many investors. While the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) is down around 2% over the last 12 months, Woolworths shares are now registering a drop of 29%.

In comparison, the owner of competitor Coles, Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) has seen its share price decline 7% while grocery wholesaler Metcash Limited (ASX: MTS) is down 54% over the same period.

With analysts set to slash their forecast earnings in response to the latest guidance, investors will need to be careful about seeing the latest price decline as a buying opportunity. Until a new base level of earnings has been reliably established the stock price may continue to come under pressure.

Motley Fool contributor Tim McArthur has no position in any stocks mentioned. Unless otherwise noted, the author does not have a position in any stocks mentioned by the author in the comments below. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Technology Shares

Joining the revolution: How I'd invest in ASX AI shares right now

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could usher in a new industrial revolution. Here’s how you can invest in it.

Read more »

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »