Hold onto your hats folks…
The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) (Index: ^AXJO) is heading to 6,000 points by the end of 2016, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.
At today's prices, that implies an upside return of roughly 14%, or 18% with dividends included.
What's driving the market?
Originally, the investment bank's target was 6,000 points by the end of 2015, according to an article in the Fairfax Press. However, analysts Damien Boey and Hasan Tevfik said the markets were too focused on the negative "macro" headlines of US interest rates, China's slowdown and risks in the local housing market to meet the target.
As a result, they believe it is the time to become a contrarian investor using a bottom-up approach, with a number of their historical figures suggesting now is a good time to buy. A 'bottom-up approach' requires investors to focus on the business first and foremost, rather than worry about macroeconomic trends that may or may not eventuate.
The analysts believe the shares which suffered from the top-down negative macroeconomic sentiment could present opportunities for investors should the rebound eventuate. Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT), Lend Lease Group (ASX: LLC) and South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) were identified as stock ideas for the rebound.
Foolish takeaway
As is evident from the 2015 forecast, predicting market movements in the short term is next to impossible. Not only must prognosticators be right about the direction and quantum of the movement, they must also put a time on their projections.
Personally, I use a bottom-up approach to investing, with an eye for companies with long-term tailwinds. Although I cannot comment on the process of other analysts' research or strategy, I'd only buy shares in one of the companies above, at today's prices: Flight Centre.
