What Happened? Yesterday half of Energy Resources of Australia Limited (ASX: ERA) board resigned following a disagreement with 68% shareholder Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) over the way forward for the group's Ranger 3 Deeps project.
Why? ERA's Ranger mine in the Northern Territory was once one of the top five uranium producing mines in the world. For 30 years, from the early 1980s until 2012, the mine produced over 10 million pounds per annum of uranium, which is used for energy production and (less so) weapons. In 2012, a low ore price and declining grades saw production cease and a study commence on how best to develop the underground part of the mine.
ERA's share price fell from an incredible $27 in 2009 to $1.30 in 2012 and hasn't fluctuated either up or down more than 20%, until June 12. On that day ERA, pushed by Rio Tinto, announced that it would not proceed to final feasibility for the Ranger 3 Deeps project in the current operating environment of low uranium prices between US$30 and US$40 per pound. The uranium price also hasn't moved a significant amount in recent years as the Japanese Tsunami and resulting shutdown of the majority of Japan's reactors put the market into a position of oversupply.
Analysts predict spot prices will rise to above US$70 per pound over time, however this looks a long way off at the moment.
What Now? I can't help but feel that ERA would benefit from a release from Rio Tinto's grasp, however the question has to be asked if anyone else would actually buy Rio's $130 million stake? If the Ranger project could get off the ground then I'd expect an investor would pick up a bargain at the current share price of 37 cents, however the base case scenario must now surely be that the end is near for ERA unless something dramatically changes.
I should note that ERA's other great hope is the Jabiluka mine, also in the NT. The mine's history is shrouded in controversy and the company is yet to achieve development approval from the traditional owners of the land to start mining the high-grade ore body. Mining is expected to last over 10 years if developed, however the nature of protestors in the past reminds me of the Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC) situation.
