The latest Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics 'resources and energy major projects' report says to me that the mining boom is actually done.
Not just 'finishing', 'declining', or 'slowing', but done.
In the six months to the October version of the report, only three projects worth $597 million received a Final Investment Decision and progressed to the Committed Stage. This is the lowest number and value in more than a decade.
As at October 2014, there were 44 projects at the Committed Stage with a total value of $228 billion – with LNG making up 87% of that figure.
Earlier in the planning process there were 19 fewer projects at the Public Announcement stage and 8 less at the Feasibility Stage than in the April version of the report.
Once the 'Mega-LNG' projects of companies like Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) are completed, it is increasingly unlikely that projects of sufficient size to replace them will make it through the development pipeline.
The report also found that further opportunities in the resources sector will be driven by Australia's ability to regain cost and productivity competitiveness.
As I noted in commentary on the RBA's November meeting, productivity is one of the major concerns that will underpin growth in living standards for Australians over the coming years, and it is clear that this message is finally leaking through to some sectors of the economy.
With such a huge decline in resource investment however, it's possible that no amount of productivity improvement will turn things around for struggling companies like Ausdrill Limited (ASX: ASL) and Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND) who are watching the pool of available work get ever smaller.
Upcoming completions of major projects will leave many mining services companies significantly under-employed, with obvious impacts for their bottom line and share price.
Even more concerning is the fact that five major projects were completed in the six months to October 2014, in stark contrast to the three that were given the go-ahead.
As readers can see, this is substantially below replacement rate and mining services companies are watching their business evaporate into thin air.
With Australia's biggest projects Roy Hill, Australian Pacific LNG, Gladstone LNG, and Gorgon LNG all coming to completion in the next twelve months, the total value of mining services work available will drop like a stone.
It certainly looks as though this could be the death knell for mining services companies.
