There's been plenty written about the woes of Australian beverage business Coca-Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL) in recent times as earnings in 2014 are forecast to decline for the second consecutive year after some strong numbers in 2012. The profit falls surprised the market, but was there a factor at play little realised until now?
Coca-Cola Amatil's share price steadily climbed from $11.50 at the start of 2012 to $15.24 in March 2013 after the company reported an impressive calendar year in 2012. Sales grew strongly over the year, but after that lost their fizz and a series of profit warnings followed as consumers evidently fell out of love with the product.
So did sales in financial year 2012 get a secret boost?
They certainly did and the genesis of that sales boost can be traced back to one of the cleverest and most original marketing campaigns delivered by a brand-focused business in recent times. Indeed the idea may have been so clever it supported sales during 2012 despite the widening retail price gap with competitors like Pepsi that came about in the period.
The idea was reportedly the result of brain-storming sessions between Coke's Australian management team and the creative gurus at world-renowned advertising agency Ogilvy.
The name-changer
The team came up with the idea of printing people's names on the labels of cans and bottles under the Share a Coke campaign invented and launched in Australia over the summer of 2011/12.
This locally-born idea was so successful it has since been successfully exported to 80 countries and according to The Wall Street Journal is now credited with reversing a 10 year consumption decline of Coca-Cola in the US. It has also taken China and Europe by storm and was the first time in the 125-year history of the company that such a major change was made to the global packaging.
The name-changing idea reportedly boosted sales around 7% in Australia, although the overall effect in promoting the product in the pubic conscience was immeasurable. Notably, the big sales dip in 2013 suggests the campaign's effect was significant and as it wore off sales fell. Moreover, Coca-Cola Amatil retained a widened price gap with competitors which was no longer sustainable as the original glow of the campaign wore off.
Is there another name-changer on the horizon?
Unfortunately for Coca-Cola Amatil shareholders revolutionary marketing ideas like this only come along once in a while and the latest marketing initiative to introduce $2 mini cans is likely to be inconsequential in comparison. However, the company is moving to slash costs and appears to have accepted that the price-rising business model of old is in need of revision if the earnings decline is to be reversed.
So is Coca-Cola Amatil a buy?
Given the flat forecast for the second half of 2014 and absence of another marketing master-stroke, it's no surprise the market is down on Coca-Cola Amatil.
Shares are on the slide and short-term investors will tell you it never pays to argue with the market, but long-term investors will likely be getting a reasonable deal once the company adjusts to the reality of a changing consumer environment. Good investors know that it's important to identify companies with strong management teams, business models on growth runways, and undemanding share prices.
Fortunately The Motley Fool has identified one such lesser known company on a genuinely good valuation, while being stuck in the middle of a growth sweet spot!
