Shares in Southern Cross Media Group Ltd (ASX: SXL) have plunged 40% so far in 2014 as the company's long-term outlook weakens and profits continue to fall.
Is The Market Right?
Southern Cross Media announced at the end of May that net profit for the 12 months to the end of June 2014 would be 10% below that of financial year 2013, which was 10% below that of 2012. Interestingly, the market must have been expecting the announcement as the share price only fell by around 3% on the day of the announcement.
I also find it interesting that Southern Cross Media's share price jumped 40%, to over $1.90, between the end of June 2013 and mid-September 2013 when the company reported net profit exceeding $90 million in FY13. However, the share price now languishes at just over $1 when profitability is expected to fall to around $81 million. Could this be an overreaction?
Concerns over at Ten
Analysts appear to be concerned that around 70% of Southern Cross Media's revenue comes from its affiliation with Ten Network Holdings Limited (ASX: TEN). Ten has struggled to maintain its television market share in 2014 due to a perceived lack of quality content, resulting in lower revenue from advertising for both companies.
Concerns in Radio
The company also noted that the defection of controversial broadcasters Kyle and Jackie O would have an impact on earnings, however some analysts believe that this will be a short-term issue and view the current share price as an opportunity.
Yield and a Takeover Opportunity?
Incredibly, at the current share price Southern Cross is yielding around 11% grossed up! There is a risk that the dividend payout could be cut with greater investment in the company, however this is viewed as relatively unlikely due to the shareholder backlash that would result.
Other analysts consider Southern Cross as a potential takeover target after its recent share price plunge. This can likely only occur if proposed changes to media laws come into effect, however the larger television stations are expected to be interested in Southern Cross' radio assets should current laws be relaxed. A company like Southern Cross yielding 11% will not remain cheap for long if it able to maintain its payout.
