The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released November's retail trade estimates, with retail trade turnover estimated at $22.39 billion, up 0.5% for the month. Seasonally adjusted the growth was 0.7%. The trend increase has continued since August at 0.5% each month, up from the May and June lows of 0.1%.
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing led the way upwards by 1.2%, followed by cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services with a 1.1% increase. Other food retailing and department stores rose 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, and household goods retailing was up by 0.1%.
When seasonally adjusted, the biggest gainers were cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services at +2.2%. In second place at +2.1% was other retailing, which includes pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods, newspapers and books. The department stores estimate was a seasonally adjusted -2.0%.
For the first time, the ABS has included online retail sales estimates. Splitting them between "pure-play" online sales, where the vendor sells only online, and the multi-channel online sales of traditional stores with online sales portals, also known as "bricks-and-clicks".
From March to September 2013, pure-play trade has increased from $123.7 million to $145.3 million, up 17.4% over the seven-month period. During the same period, multi-channel online retail sales were estimated to have grown 9.7%, from $235.2 million to $258.2 million.
In comparison with total Australian retail turnover, average monthly online retail sales made up 1.8% – 1.9% of all retail sales estimates.
Foolish takeaway
What general trends can we see from the data? Personal items and having a bite to eat remain at the top of our expenditures. The business cycle is trending up, but either incomes have not increased enough or the experience of the GFC still lingers in our psyche.
Retailers like Kathmandu (ASX: KMD) and Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) – owner of the Supercheap Auto, BCF, Rebel Sports and Amart Sports brand stores fit the bill nicely for personal items, recreational goods and apparel.
For café, restaurant and takeaway, investors may want to investigate companies like Domino's Pizza (ASX: DMP) and Retail Food Group (ASX: RFG). It owns brands like Michel's Patisserie, Donut King, Pizza Capers and Crust Gourmet Pizza. There's also Collins Foods (ASX: CKF), which operates a large number of KFC stores.
Clothing and footwear stocks such as Specialty Fashion Group (ASX: SFH), which offers the Katies, Millers and Crossroads stores, as well as Premier Investments (ASX: PMV), with Just Jeans, Jay Jays and Portmans, should be examined to see how overall sales trends are lifting related companies.
The department stores David Jones (ASX; DJS) and Myer Holdings (ASX: MYR) are also hoping for a strong showing once the December – January period passes, but we'll have to wait and see how that unfolds.
