Iron ore price hits A$150 a tonne

But it may not last, as Chinese steel production is cut

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

But it's unlikely to last, according to some analysts.

Overnight, the spot iron ore price rose US$5.60 to US$138.70 a tonne, in Australian dollar terms that's A$152.42 per tonne, using the current exchange rate of around US 91 cents. We could see upgrades to profit forecasts for major Australian iron ore miners including BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) as well as juniors such as Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO).

If the price persists at these levels, earnings per share forecasts could rise dramatically for the major miners, according to some analysts, and in Atlas's case, could double.

But others are not so sure, with China heading into a period of seasonal weakness, as steel production is cut. This time last year, the spot iron ore price fell to US$86.70 a tonne briefly in September, before rebounding. UBS analyst Tom Price has told the Australian Financial Review that we could see iron ore below US$70 a tonne for a short period of time. "When everyone thinks it is the end of the world, it will rally again for the pre-winter re-stock event", he said.

For Rio, the high price is a boon, with the company looking to expand output to $360 million tonnes, an increase of around 70 million tonnes. Fortescue will also benefit and the company's planned sale of a minority stake in its infrastructure assets may be put back on the shelf, as it looks to keep full control over its assets.

Fortescue's operations director David Woodall recently noted that China's steel production will go from breakneck speed to one that is merely fast, with steel demand being sustained in the short, medium and longer term.

Foolish takeaway

The one issue that may have been overlooked in all this is the rising supply of iron ore. While China may well continue to produce growing amounts of steel, the supply of iron ore could easily outstrip demand for the commodity, resulting in much lower prices.

Interested in our #1 dividend-paying stock? Discover The Motley Fool's favourite income idea for 2013-2014 in our brand-new, FREE research report, including a full investment analysis! Simply click here for your FREE copy of "The Motley Fool's Top Dividend Stock for 2013-2014."

More reading


Motley Fool writer/analyst Mike King owns shares in BHP.

More on ⏸️ Investing

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Technology Shares

Joining the revolution: How I'd invest in ASX AI shares right now

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could usher in a new industrial revolution. Here’s how you can invest in it.

Read more »

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »