Are we heading for a house price crash?

Low interest rates could trigger higher house prices

Mike King

Mike King is a Fool.com.au Investment Analyst and Writer. He caught the investing bug more than a decade ago, at a time when the U.S. had invaded Iraq and fear reigned in the markets. His initial success as the markets took off encouraged his passion and thirst for knowledge. With 13 years behind him at one of Australia's largest domestic banks, Mike's passion for stocks led him to join a boutique funds management firm, where he stayed for four years. A seven-year stint in equity research at one of the largest investment banks in the world followed that, giving Mike a thirst to pursue his passion further. Mike holds a Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment and a Graduate Certificate in Financial Planning. His passion is to help retail investors invest better, and that passion was one of his primary reasons for joining The Motley Fool Australia in late 2011. Mike has written thousands of articles since joining, including for Fairfax Media, Yahoo!7, Ninemsn and has also appeared on ABC's The Business. You can see all of Mikes' holdings here

Published October 4, 2012 10:03 am AEST

Low interest rates could fuel a housing bubble in Australia, as consumers and investors look to take advantage of lower mortgage rates, according to Moody's Investor Service.

Several commentators have suggested we are already in a housing bubble in Australia, with The Economist suggesting house prices were already 36% above their fair value, in its August update. Credit rating agency, Moody's has warned the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and banking regulators that a housing bubble could leave Australia more vulnerable to a crash.

According to the Australian Financial Review, The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the RBA have suggested in recent weeks that they are already warning banks about a US-style lending surge, should they not maintain high credit standards. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) are struggling with a low credit growth environment. It may be tempting for the banks to relax credit standards, to pick up more growth.

Lower interest rates could encourage borrowers to load up on more debt, at a time when household debts are still fairly high. A housing crash could see many homeowners over-leveraged, and owing more than their house is worth – similar to what happened in the US. However, unlike the US, where banks in many states don't have recourse to people's other assets, Australian banks can pursue borrowers to recover any shortfalls between a home loan and the sale value of the house.

House prices have recently started to rise, and the RBA may have been reluctant to cut rates to avoid fueling more growth in property prices. Unfortunately for the central bank, it's stuck between a rock and a hard place, with exports struggling, commodity prices falling and signs of job weakness. At the same time other central banks cutting their interest rates and releasing economic stimulus, putting more upward pressure on our dollar.

Foolish takeaway

We've seen what happened in the US when consumers took on debts they couldn't pay, and the same situation for European governments. The lesson is to reduce your debts, and don't be lulled into a false sense of security. Just because housing prices haven't crashed in Australia, it doesn't mean they can't.

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Motley Fool writer/analyst Mike King doesn't own shares in any companies mentioned. The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Take Stock is The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. Click here now to request your free subscription, whilst it's still available. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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